A future gone wrong

The dumbest predictions about the future – and how most of them turned out to be right.

The men who supposedly saw the future said things that bordered on the ridiculous, but on closer inspection, one has to confess that they came pretty close to nixing it. Here is a list of such forecasts on technology.

This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. — A memo at Western Union, circa 1878.

In other words, the folks from the 19^th century simply hung up on the telephone. Considering the fact that one can't send and receive sms-es, download ring tones, play games, surf the net or catch up on Facebook using the telephone, one has to admit that it does have too many shortcomings to be seriously considered a means of communication. Truly a device that’s inherently of no value to us – couldn’t they have made it smarter, like the smartphone perhaps?

Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. — Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946.

One will never know what made the bigwigs at 20^th Century Fox switch off at the very mention of television, but it is a fact that people did get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. And that was how TV evolved to its current hot, wall-mounted avatar. Now, it was up to people to get tired of staring at a plastic frame-mounted LED screen every night, but the TV guys were too smart to let that happen. They came up with IPL.

Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia. — Dr Dionysys Larder (1793-1859), Professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College London.

Intense research was done to figure out if the passengers would be able to withstand the breakneck speeds at which trains travelled initially, often clocking 15 miles an hour effortlessly. Eventually, serendipity helped uncover the cause of asphyxiation and difficulty in breathing – it was the stench from the toilets. Ever since, trains began a new era in transportation and have progressed to operating at over 200 miles per hour.

I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

Though this is as erroneous as Bill Gates' ‘640k memory ought to be enough for anybody’ quote, it’s a pretty accurate estimation of the number of computers currently being sold in India, what with everyone opting for tablets, phablets and piglets (when playing Angry Birds, that is).

The multitude of books is a great evil. There is no limit to this fever for writing; every one must be an author; some out of vanity, to acquire celebrity and raise up a name, others for the sake of mere gain. - Martin Luther, German Reformation leader, Table Talk, circa 1530s.

The world took him seriously and soon, the sale of books went down dramatically (barring those titles that had shades of grey in them). But then, blogs came into our lives – everyone wanted to blog, be read and eventually be published. Today, the multitude of blogs is a great evil. There's no limit to this fever for writing; everyone must be an author; some out of vanity, to acquire celebrity and raise up a name, others for the sake of mere gain.

Computers in the future will weigh no more than 1.5 tons. - Popular Mechanics, 1949

Haven't you heard your colleagues huff and puff with their laptops, claiming that they weighed a ton? Close enough.

Losing the human touch

By the year 2020, technology had almost ruined cinema – this is how the industry fought back.

April 6, 2020. It has been 125 years since the first visual special effect – the stop action technique that helped replace an actor with a dummy seamlessly - was demonstrated on film. Ever since, technology has played a major role in evolving cinema, from black and white to colour and from silent movies to talkies... Unfortunately, it did not stop there.

During the initial years, movies had been more about people, their lives and their stories. When technology came into the picture, visual effects took a giant leap, with matte techniques that blended multiple shots to create an illusion. Special effects like the Schüfftan process allowed miniature sets to be shown like Godzilla’s penthouse and made actors look the size of Gremlins in front of them. This removed the need for large sets, and consequently, scores of set designers, art directors and carpenters saw their careers being pulled down.

Rear and front projection ensured that big budget outdoor shots could be completed indoors by projecting the background on a screen. Chroma keying allowed the film to be shot with a blue screen or a green screen as a backdrop - the background could be added later, during post production. Suddenly, locations were no longer so important. The Swiss Alps could be added at the director’s leisure to a Bollywood song – and with that, location scouts, location managers and coordinators lost their way in the industry.

3D computer-generated imagery (CGI) led to animated images vying with live actors for space in the movies. Soon animated characters – dinosaurs, giant snakes, aliens and ghosts - began to star in movies, leaving actors to play mere supporting roles. Entire movies were set in simulated environments and virtual worlds. Motion capture made it easier to use humans, capture their movements and facial expressions, and then create animated characters that would represent them on screen. Since these characters were created using software, costumes and make-up became redundant – the careers of costume designers, costume supervisors, make-up artists and scores of tailors simply came apart at the seams.

Soon movies became more about technology and less about people. What began as a collective effort of hundreds of people was soon reduced to a bunch of tech geeks making a movie. The last straw was when filmmakers realized that actors were no longer needed – they could be replicated on screen using CGI. The casting director, the casting agent and the casting couch soon found themselves without a role to play in the business.

Soon even actors began finding it difficult to find work – their computer generated counterparts filled in for them adequately. (Besides, producers were glad to do away with star tantrums, long breaks, big egos, bigger vanity vans, their burgeoning entourage and the huge monies they demanded.) But audiences the world over began to get restless. The magic was missing and soon they stopped going to the theatres. In the beginning, it was mistaken to be the onslaught of television. In the 80s, it was attributed to home videos and a decade later, piracy was made the fall guy. Finally, it took the utter failure of Avatar VII – the Titanic goes to Mars, for the film fraternity to realize what had gone wrong. The audience was missing the human element.

To bring back actors on screen would be regressive. Technology was doing a great job of simulating them in the movies. How else could one get the audience to see real people on screen? “For at least 5-10 minutes, if not the entire duration,” theatre owners pleaded. Much thought went into it and finally, after intense research, the experts found the solution.

And that was how, starting April 1, 2020, the newsreel came back into our lives.